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Posts Tagged ‘Tim Pawlenty’

Three Problems With the Iowa Poll & Story About Sarah Palin’s Favorability

Posted by Shane Vander Hart on March 1, 2011

Palin-Iowa-GOP-3Sarah Palin’s favorability ratings are slipping!  Her favorability ratings are slipping!  That’s what you hear from The Des Moines Register today in their latest release of the Iowa Poll.

Tom Beaumont reports a drop from 71% to 65% in the last 15 months.

Three problems with this poll and story.

  1. The sample size – 189 people.  Not exactly the standard used in scientific polls.
  2. The margin of error of 7.1% +/- since the decline falls within the margin of error.
  3. Josh Painter points out that Beaumont fails to mention the last time this was polled was actually back in June.  Her favorability rating then was 58% with a 4.4% +/- margin of error.  So her favorability has actually increased by 6 points since June.

Why not report that?

The thrust of Beaumont’s article seems to have more to do with a lack of political activity in Iowa:

However, Palin has done very little to cultivate political good will in a state where face-to-face meetings with influential activists, officials and organizers are common. Palin held no private political meetings during any of her four visits. She met briefly with about 50 influential Republican officials and donors during a reception before the fundraiser she headlined in September, but did not discuss mounting an Iowa campaign.

Some Iowa Republicans have said privately they do not expect Palin to run, considering her low profile in the state.

A reason for the dimmed enthusiasm for Palin could be her national exposure combined with her lack of Iowa activity, Geller said.

"She hasn’t been active in the state. And Iowans have that expectation and a feeling of responsibility to see these people up close," Geller said. "But it might also be a little Sarah Palin fatigue. They are familiar with her and yet they are not necessarily embracing her. Sixty-five percent is not a very high favorable rating."

But it isn’t a bad favorability rating either.  I agree that if she runs she needs to come to the state, however there are a number of prospective candidates who have not spent much time here…. yet.  I also suspect that her favorability rating will go up if she does start campaigning her because she is extremely good at retail politicking.

As far as the “some Iowa Republicans” who have said privately they don’t expect her to run based on fewer visits to Iowa.  So what?  Frankly I don’t give much credence to people who can’t attach their names to comments made.  It seems like political backbiting from people who support other candidates.  She may not run, but so far we are off to a slow start.  She has made a few visits, but she isn’t camped out here.  There has been some outreach done, but not a ton yet.  You can’t quite compare her activity to Rick Santorum’s or Tim Pawlenty’s for instance because she does have more name recognition, media exposure, and still has a lot of grassroots support.  Her campaign and candidacy will look different, but that doesn’t mean none of the rules apply

I still think she needs to participate in the Iowa Straw Poll and not wait too much longer, but I’m not writing off a candidacy yet.  It’s too early especially since no one has formally announced yet.

Anyway putting forth a narrative that her favorability is in decline based on the problems inherit with the poll and story seems to be to be a bunch of spin.

Photo by Dave Davidson

Shane Vander Hart is the editor-in-chief of the Caffeinated Communications Network which includes Caffeinated Thoughts, Caffeinated Theology and Caffeinated TV.  Feel free to friend Shane on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.

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Sarah Palin, Bringing The Macho, And True Leadership, To The Republican Party

Posted by Gary P Jackson on May 3, 2010

 

The future of our country, the direction that we go as people, whether we move ahead to meet the challenges of the future or slide back into the irresponsible policies of the past, will be determined by those who get involved.

~Ronald Reagan

When I look at Sarah Palin, when I think about Sarah Palin, when I write about Sarah Palin, one thing stands out: This woman has cojones. Grande cojones!

One of the most frustrating things about the modern day Republican Party is, for the most part, they are gutless wonders. Even the ones who you find appealing, the ones that look like they may have some fight in them, will let you down at some point.

We are at war in this country. We have been at war for the soul of this nation for over 100 years. A minority group of Marxist-progressives have slowly, but methodically infected this nation with an ideology of hate, division, and failure. Over the decades they have eroded many of America’s greatest strengths.

With the tragic election of Barack Obama, the war has escalated to thermonuclear status. Not only is every tradition, every custom under assault, so is the Rule of Law, and the very Constitution that protects us from a tyrannical government. So far the Obama regime is winning this war, aided by their media partners who serve as little more than a Ministry of Propaganda.

We are on the verge of losing America, as we know and love it, forever. If not curtailed, the Obama regime will soon have America destroyed, and what will be left will more resemble a third world Banana Republic, than the world’s only Super Power.

Sarah Palin understands this.

Only one person has really shown the ability to stand up to the regime and take it to them on a steady basis, and that’s Sarah Palin. The radical left hates her for it. The Obama regime has tried ever dirty trick in the book, everything it learned from Alinsky, as well as decades immersed Chicago corruption and thuggery, and yet, not only is Sarah still standing, she has gotten stronger.

Justin Miller has written a fine take on this for The Atlantic magazine. While I don’t agree with everything Justin writes, he does get one thing right, for sure: Sarah Palin brings the Macho.

The Macho Primary:

Republican primary voters like macho candidates and no one is more macho than Sarah Palin.

In a way the fashionista and mother of five evokes more toughness than any man regularly mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in the GOP. Palin is visceral, in your face, relishes combat, and won’t be shamed. (Her hobbies include ice fishing, snowmobiling, running, and hunting.) These are traits usually and stereotypically associated with men – and they’re especially endearing to Republicans, who like to see President Obama hit with the most force possible.

The basis of her popularity says nothing about whether she will or won’t run for president or even if she could win. It does show that she’s passing the Republican test of who is the toughest person on Democrats and Obama. It’s a “macho primary” of sorts.

Palin goes after Obama at every opportunity and hits him hard. She doesn’t use a politician’s favorite tactic of saying at least one nice thing about the opponent’s character before shredding a man’s past, questioning his judgment, beliefs, and priorities. Palin shows as much mercy as Jack Bauer.

Not only is Palin tough on Democrats, she seems to genuinely enjoy beating them up. Crowds get behind Palin’s attacks of Obama because she makes being mean fun by using humiliation, sarcasm, cutesy catchphrases, and smiles.

Republicans know she won’t bow to what they think are elite sensitivities or political correctness. Say she was “going rogue” as a diss? She’ll make it the title of her book. Dismiss the GOP as the “party of no?” Palin will rename it “the party of hell no!” Argue that her slogan, “Don’t Retreat, Instead RELOAD” is a call to violence? She’ll repeat it and then add “that is not a call for violence.”

In 2008, John McCain was tough but not merciless on Obama. If he got energized by crowds, it was because he was ad libing and going back-and-forth with questioners–not because they were cheering his peroration. (Palin doesn’t really take questions.) McCain occasionally took his party to task for outrageous rhetoric. Even this modicum of restraint left Republicans dejected — until the pit bull with lipstick came aboard and started mauling Obama.

Who else is as macho as Palin? Tim Pawlenty? Too nice. Mitt Romney? No fun. Plenty of Republicans refuse to apologize, but none appropriate negative accusations quite like Palin does.

The last person to be loved by Republicans as much or more than Palin was George W. Bush. While he can’t run for president again, another Texas governor full of swagger could run and do very well in the macho primary: Rick Perry.

Perry campaigned as a Tea Partier in everything but name during the Texas Republican primary this year. He used anti-Washington, right-wing rhetoric as hot as anything Palin has said–and went on to demolish Kay Bailey Hutchinson (he’ll win the general election). Get a taste of the rhetoric and see how much Perry gets fired-up going after Washington here.

Republicans don’t want a passionate reformer or soothing reconciler–they want a fighter.

It’s not just Republicans who want a fighter…Americans want a fighter!

Another thing…Sarah isn’t afraid of taking wayward Republicans to task either. Just ask the Alaska Republican Party! 

While I agree in principle that Rick Perry is also a fighter, and a great Governor, who will indeed win re-election, even he is a bit timid at times compared to Sarah Palin. He sure would make a great Vice President in the Palin administration though!

If I had to make a real comparison to Sarah, with someone in the Party, it would have to be Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann. This woman also has cojones. In fact, it seems that only Conservative women are blessed with any real testicular fortitude nowadays. Like Sarah, Michelle is absolutely hated by the left, and she wears that as a badge of honor. Michelle has grilled top people in the Obama regime, asking them to point to the part of the Constitution that allows them to do what they do. (and left them a quivering mass of humanity) Michelle has called the Obama regime and Marxist-democrat Congress “gangster government.” The girl’s got game.

Where are the rest?

Sarah seems to thrive on the attacks thrown her way. I know a lot of this has to do with her strong, unwavering faith in God, but it also has to do with a serious competitive streak. This is a woman who led her high school basketball team to a championship, playing that championship game on a broken ankle. She earned the nickname “Sarahcuda!

Sarah has carried that competitive urge with her all through life. Sarah is a take no prisoners, in it to win it, kind of person. Look at her reaction when the McCain campaign decided to pull it’s efforts out of Michigan late in the game. She was ready to go, on her own dime if necessary, to keep campaigning there. She wasn’t about to concede a single acre of ground to the Obama campaign. You can bet your last dollar that come 2012 she will have a solid 50 state strategy. No one is better at retail politics than Sarah Palin.

But there is more to it than just guts and a competitive spirit. Sarah Palin stands for things, and there is very little grey area in her positions. Sarah doesn’t do nuance.

When Sarah started speaking out about ObamaCare, she zeroed in on the fact that health care would be rationed under the government system, just as it is in every nation on earth that has government run health care. She coined the term “death panels” to vividly describe the boards of bureaucrats who, in place of you and your doctor, would decide who gets what care. The left, as well as the establishment Republicans, lost their minds. When they called her a liar, she wrote another op-ed and doubled down! In fact, Sarah made absolutely certain the term “death panels” became a household word, a part of the American lexicon.

Of course, she was proven right, as we recently wrote, Peter Orszag, the Obama regime’s budget director admitted that yes, there were “death panels” (though he didn’t call them that) and yes, there would be health care rationing. You can read more, and see video of the guy in his own words, here.

Name me another person who could have stood up to the intense ridicule and hatred Sarah Palin faced on this one issue, never mind the insanity the mere mention of her name causes on the left and among the establishment GOP.

You think a Mitt Romney could withstand a daily assault from the Obama regime, their media partners, as well as the loser wing of the Republican Party? Don’t think so. Of course, as the establishment’s choice, I guess the country club GOP’ers would leave him alone.

Let’s look at the latest “controversy” out there: Illegal immigration. Arizona just passed a tough law that mirrors the FEDERAL law, and simply empowers local law enforcement to enforce the laws that are already on the books.

Obviously the left is going nuts, as they are counting on the support of all of those illegals. Why do you think they are pushing for amnesty? Instant Marxist-democrat voters baby! That and the Marxists get to play their favorite card, the race card. Identity politics ‘till the bitter end.

Some of the establishment GOP is going nuts as well, with Connie Mack, a Congressman out of Florida, comparing all of this to “Gestapo tactics.”

What was Sarah’s stance? First she said: “What part about the word ‘illegal’ don’t YOU understand.” She appeared on the Sean Hannity Show and talked about the issue. She also touched on something the rest of the GOP seems too timid to talk about, Obama’s continual playing of the race card, and his attempts to divide the nation along racial lines, rather than bring the nation together. You can see Stacy Drake’s report here.

Something else Sarah did, she went and supported Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, as well as the Arizona Diamondbacks baseball team, who have been targeted by vile communists wishing to stir up trouble.


 


 


 

This was a real “in your face” to those who find it troubling that we should actually FOLLOW THE LAW!

Phoenix, Arizona is the kidnap capital of the United States, and ranks number two in the world. This is all due to illegals who come here, the human trafficking it takes to get them here, and the drug trade. It amounts to no less than an invasion by foreign forces. An incredible amount of violence has been visited on the Arizona people, and the federal government has failed to respond. The federal government has failed to carry out it’s number one constitutional duty, protecting the American people from all enemies, foreign and domestic. Instead, politicians have tried to use this issue for their own political gain. It borders on treason.

Since the federal government refuses to enforce it’s own laws, and protect it’s people against this invasion of violence, the state of Arizona was forced to take action. Arizona must protect it’s people.

I’m sure Mitt Romney will weigh in as soon as all of the polling is done.

Speaking of polling, Arizona voters overwhelmingly support this action, with 70% approval, and over 60% of voters nationwide approve as well.

The Obama regime dithered for nine days while a possibly containable oil spill in the Gulf turned into a disaster of epic proportions. They couldn’t find they time as they were too busy demonizing everything that makes America great. This is Obama’s Katrina. Actually it’s worse, because there is simply no excuse for waiting so long to act. Stacy Drake weighs in on this mess here.

Of course, once Obama and his crew did get involved, it was purely political, with the regime using this as an excuse to halt America’s efforts toward energy independence. The GOP has been totally silent on this, but not Sarah Palin.

Sarah knows first hand what this tragedy will do to the effected area, having lived with the damage from the Exxon Valdez disaster. She writes extensively about this heartbreaking event in her book. One can tell it shaped her stance on tough standards for oil companies.

Instead of knee jerk panic, or political opportunism, Sarah calmly addressed the situation, showing the true leadership this nation requires. Both as an energy and environmental regulator, as well as Governor, Sarah has proven her expertise in the field. She has shown clear judgment where others have failed. You can see her statement here.

This is the story of Sarah Palin. She is a strong leader who, as Ronald Reagan would say, “paints in bold colors.” There are no “pale pastels” in Sarah’s pallette. Sarah Palin stands unwavering and true, where others are too timid to tread.

Quite simply, leaders lead.

Though this doesn’t have anything to do with Sarah. A friend sent me this video that reminds us of the strong bold leadership the Republican Party used to stand for, especially under Ronald Reagan. Though not President, yet, I think Sarah Palin, like the great men portrayed in the video, is the right leader at the right time. Someone who truly understands American greatness, American exceptionalism, and will never apologize for wanting America to remain The Shining City on a Hill.

H/T Stacy Drake

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Palin Turns Down RPI Fundraiser, Pawlenty Up

Posted by Shane Vander Hart on October 7, 2009

Here in Iowa we practically trip over presidential candidates, it’s part of the state’s charm, if you love politics that is.  The closer to the caucus the better (or worse depending on your perspective) it gets.  Mike Huckabee has recently been in the state stumping for Bob Vander Plaats.  Last week possible contender Rick Santorum came to Iowa.  Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is coming next month to headline the Republican Party of Iowa’s fundraising dinner called “Leadership for Iowa.”  Pawlenty seems to be positioning himself for a run in 2012:

Last week Pawlenty, who is not running for re-election next year, opened a national leadership political action committee and unveiled a team of national political advisers that suggest the Midwestern governor is eyeing a 2012 presidential bid.

Among those advisers are Iowans Sara Taylor and Terry Nelson, who were key advisers to President George W. Bush’s 2000 and 2004 campaigns.

Pawlenty has also built up goodwill among some GOP activists in Iowa, where he campaigned for 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain, including before the leadoff nominating caucuses when the Arizona senator’s campaign teetered on financial collapse.

He wasn’t RPI’s first choice.  Chairman Matt Strawn had invited Sarah Palin originally for this dinner or any other event she’d like to have.  Essentially an open invitation to come to Iowa.  Politico reports that her spokesperson, Meg Stapleton said the timing was too difficult.

Palin adviser Meg Stapleton said the former governor is still interested in a visit to the Hawkeye State, but that they couldn’t fit the dinner in.

"With the Governor’s accelerated book schedule and other travel obligations, the timing was just too difficult to make a firm commitment,” Stapleton said, adding, “We look forward to another opportunity."

And I know that many of us would love to have her, as she was well received the last time she was here.  With her book, Going Rogue: An American Life coming out on November 17 it’s already #1 at Amazon and Barnes & Noble.  It is already a best seller at Borders and in the top 50 for pre-orders (they don’t rank as far as I can tell).  That may incite (or quash) speculation about her intentions in 2012.  Regardless, I hope she’ll include Des Moines on a book signing tour.

Shane is the Editor of Caffeinated Thoughts. You can follow Shane on Twitter and friend him on Facebook.

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