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Posts Tagged ‘2012 Iowa Caucus’

Sarah Palin’s Potential Candidacy Doesn’t Rise and Fall on One Event

Posted by Shane Vander Hart on September 3, 2011

palin-Iowa-GOP-5Having read Craig Robinson’s piece on Sarah Palin’s supposed inability to run a national campaign based off the what transpired on Wednesday regarding her upcoming speech on Saturday has left me wondering. If it rains tomorrow, like forecasters predict it will, I suppose Robinson think that’s her fault as well? She’s just not ready for primetime because, heaven forbid, she didn’t have the foresight to have it indoors.  Perhaps she didn’t pray enough to have God shut up the heavens so it would not rain on this blessed event.  She should have had some staff out there ahead of time to coordinate having rain slickers passed out to the huddled masses.

Obviously I’m being just a *little* snarky, and Robinson wouldn’t do such a thing, but I find it amazing how her potential candidacy is being judged by one event which she did not have control of.

I had my own thoughts on Wednesday’s fiasco with Ken Crowe and the Tea Party of America.  I know Robinson will probably dismiss me as a Palin lackey, but you could substitute Palin’s name with Mitt Romney and I would feel the same way.

The simple fact is this.  This wasn’t her event, she was an invited guest.  Could she do her own event?  Sure, I suppose, but why?  If this was a campaign announcement then that would make sense, but who drove that narrative?  I suspected that she was running, and as an Iowan blogger it would have been great to witness an announcement speech, but nobody in her camp said it was going to be an announcement speech.  Sure the organizers of the event eluded to that, but they are not her staff, they aren’t working for her and perhaps they thought it would draw more people.  No, who I saw drive the narrative that she’s announcing on September 3rd were beltway politicos – Karl Rove and Dick Morris.  It was nothing, but speculation.

Robinson wrote:

In many respects, the drama surrounding the event doesn’t have anything to do with Palin herself. Palin’s people were not the ones inviting, disinviting, reinviting, and redisinviting speakers. That was the organizers of the event. However, it didn’t help when Palin’s participation at the event was put on hold for five hours on Wednesday.

Robinson continued, “Palin may have an inner circle that advises her, but what she needs are loyal professionals who will look out for her best interests in everything she is involved with.”

I agree that she needs paid staff if she’s going to run, but not to manage somebody else’s event but not before she’s a candidate.  I also agree that if she canceled then it would have made her look bad which is why I didn’t think she would.  Robinson’s straining gnats and thinking like an establishment politico.  Looking at what she is going to be speaking about on Saturday it has me thinking that she’s preparing for a run and establishing a narrative/messaging – you know something you need to do before you announce.

Cross-posted at Caffeinated Thoughts.

Shane Vander Hart is the editor of Caffeinated Thoughts and Caffeinated Theology and lives near Des Moines, IA with his wife and three kids.  Feel free to follow him on Twitter and friend him on Facebook.

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Posted in 2012, Caffeinated Thoughts | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Palin Camp Movement & Straw Poll Results

Posted by Shane Vander Hart on April 23, 2011

palin0419Sarah Palin has been making some news and I was too busy with stuff happening in Iowa to cover it, but I do want to give it some attention now.  There is movement on the Palin front, and a couple of things that make me go, hmmm….. even if I’m not seeing anything on the ground in Iowa.

Anyway, I’ve made a couple of observations over at Caffeinated Thoughts.  I encourage you to check it out.

P.S.  I’d also like to thank all of you who voted in the first ever Caffeinated Thoughts Straw Poll.  Sarah didn’t win it, but she did come in second.  With Ron Paul linking to the straw poll he pretty much had it won on day one, but you guys put in a valiant effort.  You can see the results over at Caffeinated Thoughts’ Facebook page.  We had some kinks that need to be worked out.  We’ll be doing it again this fall when the candidate pool has been paired down some.

Posted in 2012, Caffeinated Thoughts | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Three Problems With the Iowa Poll & Story About Sarah Palin’s Favorability

Posted by Shane Vander Hart on March 1, 2011

Palin-Iowa-GOP-3Sarah Palin’s favorability ratings are slipping!  Her favorability ratings are slipping!  That’s what you hear from The Des Moines Register today in their latest release of the Iowa Poll.

Tom Beaumont reports a drop from 71% to 65% in the last 15 months.

Three problems with this poll and story.

  1. The sample size – 189 people.  Not exactly the standard used in scientific polls.
  2. The margin of error of 7.1% +/- since the decline falls within the margin of error.
  3. Josh Painter points out that Beaumont fails to mention the last time this was polled was actually back in June.  Her favorability rating then was 58% with a 4.4% +/- margin of error.  So her favorability has actually increased by 6 points since June.

Why not report that?

The thrust of Beaumont’s article seems to have more to do with a lack of political activity in Iowa:

However, Palin has done very little to cultivate political good will in a state where face-to-face meetings with influential activists, officials and organizers are common. Palin held no private political meetings during any of her four visits. She met briefly with about 50 influential Republican officials and donors during a reception before the fundraiser she headlined in September, but did not discuss mounting an Iowa campaign.

Some Iowa Republicans have said privately they do not expect Palin to run, considering her low profile in the state.

A reason for the dimmed enthusiasm for Palin could be her national exposure combined with her lack of Iowa activity, Geller said.

"She hasn’t been active in the state. And Iowans have that expectation and a feeling of responsibility to see these people up close," Geller said. "But it might also be a little Sarah Palin fatigue. They are familiar with her and yet they are not necessarily embracing her. Sixty-five percent is not a very high favorable rating."

But it isn’t a bad favorability rating either.  I agree that if she runs she needs to come to the state, however there are a number of prospective candidates who have not spent much time here…. yet.  I also suspect that her favorability rating will go up if she does start campaigning her because she is extremely good at retail politicking.

As far as the “some Iowa Republicans” who have said privately they don’t expect her to run based on fewer visits to Iowa.  So what?  Frankly I don’t give much credence to people who can’t attach their names to comments made.  It seems like political backbiting from people who support other candidates.  She may not run, but so far we are off to a slow start.  She has made a few visits, but she isn’t camped out here.  There has been some outreach done, but not a ton yet.  You can’t quite compare her activity to Rick Santorum’s or Tim Pawlenty’s for instance because she does have more name recognition, media exposure, and still has a lot of grassroots support.  Her campaign and candidacy will look different, but that doesn’t mean none of the rules apply

I still think she needs to participate in the Iowa Straw Poll and not wait too much longer, but I’m not writing off a candidacy yet.  It’s too early especially since no one has formally announced yet.

Anyway putting forth a narrative that her favorability is in decline based on the problems inherit with the poll and story seems to be to be a bunch of spin.

Photo by Dave Davidson

Shane Vander Hart is the editor-in-chief of the Caffeinated Communications Network which includes Caffeinated Thoughts, Caffeinated Theology and Caffeinated TV.  Feel free to friend Shane on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.

Posted in Caffeinated Thoughts, Sarah Palin | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »