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Archive for August 24th, 2012

The Palin/Goldwater Electoral College Path To Victory 2016

Posted by M.Joseph Sheppard At Palin4President2016 on August 24, 2012




The premise is, should Romney lose, that a candidate who best represents the base would be doing proper justice to the loyalists, and would attract the voting support of the Tea Party activists who might otherwise sit out the 2016 election.



It is of course by no means a given that President Obama will cruise to re-election. In January 1980 President Carter had a 34 point poll lead over Ronald Reagan and that did not turn out to well for the Democrats in November-so anything is possible.



However, for the sake of an argument lets suppose that Obama is impregnable and will cruise to victory.What then is the point of putting up a centrist candidate e.g. a Christie or a Daniels “who will appeal to Independents” if the ticket will lose anyway because of a split in the party?  



It might be said that having a ‘safe pair of hands” would ensure that the down ticket losses might be minimized, or Democrats gains negated, but that is by no means the case.There are many instances where a sitting president far outran his ticket and in fact lost ground in Congress whilst cruising to an easy re-election. 



The voters know how to differentiate between the presidential and congressional candidates. For example, President Nixon’s overwhelming victory in 1972 was not accompanied by any significant increase in Republican strength in Congress. In point of fact the majority Democrats increased their Senate holding by two seats.



It would, from this current vantage point, seem very unlikely that the GOP would lose the House so soon after its smashing victory in 2010 no matter what sort of candidate they ran with for President. Further, with so many Democrats retiring and if the economy is still in bad shape there looks every chance that the Republicans could pick up the Senate in 2012 thus, if Obama is re-elected, basically making him a lame duck from day one of his second term.



With a truly conservative candidate such as Palin, there appears a core base of Electoral College support, which the Goldwater election of 1964 represents (Map 1). If the hopeless year for the GOP of 1996 (Map2) is examined, that base is bigger still, and it has strengthened even further if (Map 3) the 2008 election is examined. 



Surely there could have been no worse time for a GOP candidate to run since Landon in 1932 given the negativity towards the Bush years, the economic crisis, and the two unpopular wars, yet the Electoral College base has tripled in size since 1964 and the McCain/Palin ticket performed remarkably well given these deleterious factors.



2012 will see all those factors reversed should the current economic, continue as it is now. President Obama, as did President Carter, will own the prevailing climate in November 2012, and the Republican base will be determined to vote in strength, whilst all those areas of support Obama put together in 2008 with such enthusiasm-youth, anti-war proponents, Blacks, may not be so enthused next time.
Thus, as map 4 shows, if the states which have traditionally been Republican are added to the 2008 wins, then Palin has every chance to win in 2016.

The reality is that in 2012 Romney will win back Indiana and possibly North Carolina giving the 2016 candidate an even better base to build on.

The GOP establishment has no credible argument for a middle of the road candidate as there are clear indications that the base would sit on their hands come November 2016, and in that case there is a very strong possibility of significant down ticket losses.



In a worst case scenario the GOP runs a true conservative and loses badly . But even still, history shows the party could actually gain congressional seats even with that outcome, and the base would still bring a more credible showing than the Democrats results with Carter, McGovern and Mondale, whose states they won combined, across three elections was only one more than Goldwater’s effort.



History shows that even with a massive loss, should that happen for Romney, that is no bar to winning the presidency four years later. Nixon proved it in 1968, Carter in 1976, Roosevelt in 1932, and Kennedy in 1960. Thus the GOP has everything to gain with a Palin candidacy, especially with a Republican congress, as she would ensure that genuine conservative policies would be implemented and the country would be back on its traditional center-right path. Anything else is defeatism and surrender to the Beltway establishment.



                            MAP 1. GOLDWATER 1964 

MAP 2 DOLE 1996



                        MAP 3 McCAIN/PALIN 2008/ROMNEY 2012?

                                MAP 4 PALIN 2016







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Post Akin;Only Prolife Woman From Multiracial Family (Palin) Can Win Presidency 2016

Posted by M.Joseph Sheppard At Palin4President2016 on August 24, 2012



The Todd Akin affair could turn out to be a major element in the loss of the 2012 for the Romney/Ryan team should that happen. Such a result would have a significant bearing on the post election cohesiveness of the GOP, and the 2016 election.


The Republican establishment might blame the conservatives/Tea Party element for alienating the Independent voters through the Dem’s tarring the entire party with the Akin brush. They then could press for another centrist candidate in the Dole/McCain/Romney mould for the 2016 election.


This could cause a major split in the Republican ranks. The Tea Party element could feel that the waters had been muddied, as without the Akin gift to the Dem’s Romney would have lost anyway, and it would now be the turn for the conservative element to have their candidate as the nominee next time.


If the establishment succeeded in, once again,  getting one of their own to be the next nominee, there could be, at best, a massive stay at home protest on election day, and at worst, a huge split in the party leading to a third party being created on the right. This, whilst the probably inevitable result of such a scenario, would doom the right to many years out of office until the dust settled.


What worked for the Democrats in 2008 and so far in 2012, the charge of racism, the “war on women” nonsense would surely get another airing. It would probably work in 2016 if the Republicans nominated a white, wealthy, pro-life, male (especially if from the South). The social positions of Akin would be an attack point even if he was a distant memory by then.


Only a Republican standard bearer would have a chance of winning who was a female, conservative, pro-life (with a degree of exception) who believed the avenue for such legislation was with the states, and who took a hands off position on the matter when in a legislative role. A mother, one who had walked the walk as far as being pro-life was concerned, even to the point of having a special needs child. A female from a family which was multi-racial so charges of racism could not be laid, and who was a northerner.


A conservative mother, no matter how much she as an individual might be against abortion following rape and incest, could escape being tied to absolutist positions such as the GOP’s currently proposed abortion plank. This charge is being leveled against Romney/Ryan by the Dem’s currently.


Only one person, Sarah Palin, meets all these criteria which would enable a campaign to be run on the issues, like the economy, without the current dislocations being experienced by the GOP.


The Republican establishment would do well to consider fully letting the rank and file  have their chance in 2016. If such a Conservative loses they will have had their chance, the party will stay united, and the Beltway can run an endless series of centrist candidates until a really bad economy gives them a win. 


If the establishment places a centrist candidate in 2016 if Romney loses in 2012, they risk losing everything for a long run of elections subsequent to a perhaps irredeemable split. Only Palin candidacy could prevent this and give the GOP its best chance to win the presidency.

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