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Archive for June 10th, 2012

78-year-old will end marathon golf adventure in Wasilla: hopes to meet Gov. Palin

Posted by Dr. Fay on June 10, 2012

Here is an inspiring story of a 78-year-old man performing a feat that would be daunting for someone half his age.  He is driving 20,000 miles in a rental car plus making a plane trip to Hawaii and one to Alaska so he can golf on 50 different courses in 50 different states in 50 days.  His last stop:   Wasilla, Alaska, where he hopes to meet Governor Palin!

From an article by Glenn Price at durantdemocrat.com:

Some people never get tired of a challenge. Take Harry Scott, for example. Harry is a 78 year old retired CPA from Somers Point, NewJersey who decided to play 50 golf courses in 50 days in all 50 states.

[..]

Think about this for just a little bit. He not only plays the four hour round of golf but also must get to his next golf course in the same day. Most people his age can’t even play more than three times in a week, let along drive another eight hours or so to the next destination.

“I wanted to do this while I was still a young man,” said Scott. (There was maybe a little tongue in cheek when he said that, but not much. He pretty much meant it.)

[..]

Scott brought up some good personal changes since he started the trip. “I’m a much better golfer now,” Scott explained. “I bet I’ve dropped about 5-6 strokes off my scores. I’m also in much better shape than when I started.”

“I’ve played some really nice courses along the way and a few not so nice,” said Scott. “The Notre Dame course was probably the most prestigious. It sure is a lot of fun. I’ve met some really nice people.”

The last course lower 48 states to be played will be in Bremerton, Washington and then Scott plans to fly to Hawaii from Seattle. After Hawaii, he will take another plane to Alaska for his late night round in Wasilla, Alaska on June 19th. He is planning on finishing the round at 11pm which will be on the 50th day of his golf odyssey. He will then fly home to New Jersey.

Scott said that he has always stayed in motels and all were reserved and paid for in advance throughout the trip although he doesn’t have one scheduled for Alaska yet.

“Maybe Sarah Palin will let me stay with them,” said Scott. (Sarah Palin’s home is in Wasilla, Alaska.) “That would be quite an ending to the trip, to stay with Sarah Palin.”

His 20,000 mile trip is all in a rental car. When asked about that Scott remarked that the last time he did this the guy at the car rental counter could not believe the mileage when he turned in the car. He will turn the car in at the Seattle airport.

[..]

He was so excited thinking about finishing on the course in Alaska and how exciting it will be. He remarked about how the adrenaline will be pumping at that time.

“The enormity of it all is just remarkable,” said Scott. “Just think, 50 days of golf with 50 different courses in 50 different states.”

The other enormity is that most of Scott’s driving was alone, most rounds were played by himself (although many rounds were played with friends and/or family that joined him along the way) and he is only two years short of 80! What will his next challenge be?

Hopefully he can meet Sarah Palin.

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Palin Says 3rd Party Run “Entirely Possible”: Electoral College Analysis Shows Win Is Feasible

Posted by M.Joseph Sheppard At Palin4President2016 on June 10, 2012

On Fox’s America’s News HQ today, in response to a question about the possibility of a third party run in 2012, Sarah Palin did not rule this out.

From the Sarah Palin information Blog:
Later in the segment,  Ms. Pemmaraju introduced a few questions chosen from those that viewers had sent in via Facebook and Twitter.  The first question, from Jan Nicholson on Facebook, was whether Gov. Palin  still considered a third party a possibility  if  ”the GOP continued to resist the new crop of commonsense conservatives.”
Oh well, Jan hit the nail on the head there in suggesting that it’s a possibility that the GOP would kind of  disenfranchise or invalidate this new crop of fiscal conservatives and Independents who just want to get the economy back on the right track.  Heaven forbid we see that in the next few months.  Oh, yeah, there is that possibility of a third party rising, but that’s only if  the GOP power players would choose to kind of co-opt this new crop of fiscal conservatives.  Let’s hope that doesn’t happen

That such an event is not only possible but entirely feasible was given a full analysis as set out below.

Michael Medved at The Daily Beast has an article up “Drop the Fantasy of a Third-Party Candidate Winning In 2012.”

Medved goes through long and torturous explanations as to why a third party win is impossible. However, the facts don’t fit his prejudiced eye on the matter. I wrote an article some months ago which clearly and concisely set out the path to a third party victory.

I reproduce it below as an example of why well known pundits  opinions are just that, their own opinions which are biased to their own point of view and are not necessarily correct. Dylan said it all so man years ago “don’t follow leaders, watch the parking meters.”

**************************************************

The question arises, does a third party run give a realistic chance of winning the presidency in 2012?

The answer is, yes if the environment if right. If by November 2012 the economy is not better than now, or has turned down further, and if the GOP has selected Romney, then a three way vote split is quite possible.

This approximates the three party (Dem/Bull Moose/GOP) 1912 election. That election was prevented being thrown in the House because sitting President Taft only carried two states, but split the vote with Roosevelt 23% to 27% denying Roosevelt enough electoral votes to deny Wilson an outright win.

Whereas the scenario below, realistically for the scene 100 years later, shows the GOP candidate winning enough electoral votes to ensure no candidate had a majority.

Given a genuine conservative, like Palin, headed a mass movement third party run and the OWS split in the left was exacerbated to the point that the “Progressives” stayed home on election day, and the Tea Party turned out en-mass, then the map below (with the prospective third party states in beige) is a very possible result.

In this scenario President Obama would not have the 270 electoral college votes needed for outright victory. Under the constitution Romney, the presumptive GOP standard bearer, President Obama, and the third party candidate would, presuming no other candidate had any electoral college votes, (they would be eliminated from the balloting as only the top three go through for consideration) be the candidates the House would decide from.

Every state would have one vote based  on the result of each states party representation. Thus, for example New York’s one vote would go to Obama and Wyoming’s one vote would go to e.g. Palin or whomever the conservative was. It would be presumed that the votes of the states that Romney had won would go to the conservative, if after the first ballot no candidate had a majority of states votes, and if the conservative was the second choice of voters as per the map below.

Given it would be unlikely that the GOP would lose control of the House in the 2012 elections and that, on the most recent analysis, the GOP would have a majority of the 50 states votes voting based on caucus outcomes when balloting.

This scenario played out before. In the election of 1824 Andrew Jackson finished first with more electoral votes than John Quincy Adams, William Crawford came third and Henry Clay fourth. With Clay eliminated he threw the support of his states to Adams, who was duly elected, based on the fact of his having the majority of states.

Interestingly the combined Adams/Clay popular vote was 43.9% to Jackson’s 41.3% so in effect electoral justice was done. Similarly in the map below the combined non-Obama electoral vote is 278-eight above the minimum of 270, and thus electoral justice would also have been done 187 years later

All depends on the state of the economy in the winter of 2012, if there is indeed an independent, or third ( or fourth !) party challenge. If there is a double-dip recession and President Obama is below 40% in the polls, as he is now, then this scenario could very well play out.

The full constitutional scenario is set out below the map.

The constitution is very clear on the matter. Article 12 states, inter- alia:


“The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”


Thus, if the no candidate with an electoral college majority scenario plays out, and presuming there are no other candidates who have won electoral votes, the House would meet to choose the next president by January 20th 2013, with the states having one vote each, whilst the Senate would meet to choose the Vice-President.


Based on the current composition of the House, and if voting went strictly on party lines, with no vote switching or abstentions in states with a close proportion of Republicans and Democrats, the Independent (or third party) candidate would be chosen on the first or second ballot.


According to information supplied by the Clerk of the House of Representatives, the current composition of the house by party is:


States with a Republican party majority of Representatives    31
States with a Democratic party  majority of Representatives  18
States with an equal number of Representatives (Minnesota)   1


What can happen to cause a crisis, or give victory to the Democrats?   If there are changes in swing states delegations due to a move back to the Dem’s from the GOP’s, perhaps, high watermark result in November 2010, the making of an Obama re-election, or constitutional crisis come into play.


The following states currently have a one or two member Republican majority:
                               Republicans                             Democrats 
Colorado                             4                                            3
Nevada                               2                                            1
West Virginia                      2                                           1
New Hampshire *               2                                           0
Wisconsin *                        5                                           3 


Thus, if the Republicans lost their majority in these five states the delegation results would be; (*or they lost in three of the five and the other two became tied delegations and voted with the Democrats as might, most likely, tied Minnesota).


REPUBLICAN STATES    26
DEMOCRATIC STATES   24


If one further state went to the Democrats, and all politics is local so anything could happen, by the GOP losing one Representative in either Montana, or North or South Dakota, the House would be split 25/25 and a constitutional crisis of massive proportions would eventuate.


The “stolen election” of 1876 brought the country to the brink of civil war. The election of 2012 gives the possibility of a situation where, as in 1824, when no candidate had an electoral majority, the candidate with a significant minority of popular votes might be chosen by the House under heated circumstances. 


This brings also the possibility of an inflamed racial environment, subsequent to a heated election campaign, over a long period of wheeling and dealing balloting to try and resolve the results of  the election.


For all these reasons, especially if the economy is at the current level of unemployment-or worse, the election of 2012 is fraught with a terrible danger for the country.These dangers could be averted, or ameliorated if, well before the actual election, the constitutional possibilities are well canvassed with the public so they are aware of what might need to be done.


Otherwise, if by the first Monday following the second Wednesday in March 2013, as the constitution requires, there is no President, the Senate’s choice of Vice-President will take over-to who knows what effect.

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