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Presidential Poll Shows Sarah Palin Ahead in South and West

Posted by Dr. Fay on March 31, 2010

A recent Harris Interactive poll showed Governor Palin with a narrow lead in the South and West when cast as a third party candidate.  However, Governor Palin has expressed no interest in running as a third party candidate.  In fact, she has urged the Tea Party to choose a party to support to make an even greater impacet.

A regional poll with Governor Palin running as a Republican would be more meaningful.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,344 adults surveyed online between March 10 and 12, 2010 by Harris Interactive of which 438 indicated they would vote for a Tea Party candidacy of Sarah Palin in the 2012 presidential election.

One other interesting highlight of these group’s characteristics comes from a regional examination. Regionally these Tea Party followers live more in the South than the other regions. In the Northeast they come to 18% of the total compared to a larger 22% of the overall populations. In the Midwest, Tea Party supporters make up 22% of the total, compared to 23% of the overall population who live in this region. In the West, 24% of Tea Partyers make this region their home compared with 23% of the general population. But 36% of all Tea Party supporters can be found in the South, compared with 33% of the population as a whole. This means that if they become a political party this year or in 2012, Tea Party advocates can have a greater impact in the South than in the other regions.

To sum it all up, the outlook for the Tea Party venture into politics must be viewed as well set-up to succeed. Above all else, they can make hay with their denunciation of the Washington crowd. That remains a very substantial target at which to shoot. Very important, they have a highly charismatic possible leader and potential candidate in Sarah Palin. And they have already shown their willingness to trek long distances to rallies and other party gatherings to be an activated movement, and they might just get enough money to finance some strong TV campaigns.

Above all, a potential of two out of every ten voters cannot be ignored by both the Democrats and Republicans. The Tea Party may prove to be the marginal difference in determining who will occupy the White House in 2013 or who will control the House of Representatives in 2011.

[…]

TABLE 4
REGIONAL BREAKDOWN OF 2012 VOTE CHOICE
Base: All U.S. adults
    Total   2012 Vote
    Obama   Romney   Palin
  %   %   %   %
Northeast   22   26   20   18
Midwest   23   21   25   22
South   33   31   35   36
West   23   22   21   24
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
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